Is Climate Change Behind the Rise in Dengue Cases?
- Muhammad Ahmad
- Nov 18, 2024
- 2 min read
A new study reveals that climate change may be responsible for nearly 20% of the increase in dengue cases worldwide
Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns are fueling the spread of mosquito-borne diseases like dengue
Climate change could drive a 40-60% rise in dengue by 2050, with hotspots seeing up to 200% increases.
Countries like India and regions in the Americas are already witnessing dramatic surges in cases.
Aggressive emissions cuts could limit, but not entirely prevent, the rise in dengue transmission.
A groundbreaking study at the annual American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH) meeting warns of a climate-driven surge in dengue cases. According to researchers, climate change could trigger a global increase of 40-60% in dengue infections by 2050, with certain hotspots, such as parts of Peru, Mexico, and Brazil, potentially experiencing a staggering 150-200% rise.
Current outbreaks underscore the urgency of these findings. India has seen a significant spike in cases this year, while countries in the Americas reported nearly 12 million cases in 2024—up from 4.6 million in 2023. For the first time, locally acquired infections have been confirmed in California and Florida, highlighting the growing geographical spread of the disease.
Technical Focus: The Climate-Dengue Connection
Dengue thrives in areas with temperatures between 20 and 29 °C, which is ideal for mosquito survival and virus transmission.
Climate change expands this "sweet spot," exposing previously unaffected regions to higher infection risks.
Aggressive emissions cuts could reduce the projected rise in dengue infections by 20% globally, but most regions still face increased cases.
One of the study's lead researchers, Erin Mordecai, noted that areas just entering the optimal temperature range for dengue transmission will be among the most brutal hit. This includes regions in Latin America, such as Bolivia and Brazil, where infections could rise by as much as 200% over the next few decades. “We are now seeing the early stages of this global shift,” Mordecai warned, stressing the need for climate-informed public health strategies.
Even under optimistic scenarios of sharp emission reductions, 17 of the 21 countries analyzed would still face significant climate-driven increases in dengue infections. The study's authors caution that while emissions cuts can moderate some impacts, adaptation strategies like improved water management, expanded vaccination programs and vector control will be essential to mitigating the future burden of dengue.
