When Will India Finally Break Free from Coal?

Despite ambitious renewable energy goals, India’s coal dependency may continue well into the 2040s

India is set to double coal production despite the climate implications

• India plans to increase coal output to 1.5 billion tons by 2030.

• Renewables account for only about 25% of India’s energy; coal remains the dominant source.

• COP 29 may increase scrutiny of India’s emissions, yet coal alternatives remain limited.

India’s energy demand is expected to double by 2040, making it one of the fastest-growing energy markets worldwide. In response, the government has set a target to raise coal production from 850 million tons to 1.5 billion tons annually by 2030, as coal continues to power over 70% of the nation’s electricity needs. Despite massive investments in renewables, which aim to reach 500 GW by 2030, the energy grid still struggles with dependency on coal due to storage limitations and a lack of reliable backup.

This reliance on coal places India in a challenging position, particularly as it approaches COP 29. Global scrutiny is increasing as India’s energy strategy contradicts its long-term climate goals, including net-zero emissions by 2070. Renewable sources currently contribute about 28% to the grid, yet energy demands are growing faster than renewable capacity, which lacks the infrastructure to replace coal at scale. Without substantial storage and grid technology advances, India’s transition away from coal will remain slow, as economic stability depends on this affordable, reliable energy source.

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Technical Focus

India’s renewable energy expansion is ambitious, with the country set to invest $350 billion in renewables by 2030. The focus is on scaling solar, wind, and hydropower, yet challenges are evident. Despite these efforts, renewables only contribute around 28% of India’s total energy needs, and coal continues to supply over 70% of electricity, which meets the demands of a fast-growing economy. The renewable sector faces challenges in grid integration and energy storage, which limits the ability of renewables to match coal’s consistency in powering industries and households.

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The urgency to reduce emissions has sparked discussions between India and global leaders about a “coal-to-clean” transition deal, yet India has declined such offers. Officials argue that renewable solutions alone cannot meet the country’s projected 500 GW requirement by 2030, with storage technology too costly and underdeveloped for large-scale implementation.

For now, coal remains the primary energy source, and many Indian officials insist on its indispensability for energy security. As a result, India’s climate strategy remains under close watch in the lead-up to COP 29, where international pressures may mount. Still, the reality of energy constraints will keep coal central to India’s plans for the foreseeable future.

While renewable investment grows, India’s energy strategy reflects a pragmatic balance. Despite global calls for cleaner energy, India’s coal commitments underscore the challenges of economic development and energy security. The COP 29 discussions may amplify the scrutiny, but without breakthroughs in storage and affordability, India’s transition from coal remains a long-term goal.